Humble Reasoning in the Environmental Sciences
Highlights from The Atlas Report in 2021
In January 2021 The Atlas Report was born!
In my top 6 picks of 2021 I’ve included my personal favorites, plus some of those that seemed to cause the most controversy!
If you like what you see, please don’t forget to subscribe so that you don’t miss any of the interesting and thought-provoking Atlas Reports in 2022.
Here goes….
1. Did the Big Bang Happen?
February 2021
This article allowed me to discuss one of the biggest ideas in physics; The Big Bang. Referencing the work of Halton Arp (pictured), who believed his observations disproved this most fundamental of cosmic theories,
I explore the idea that some scientific theories have become, perhaps, too big to fail, including those in environmental and climate sciences.
‘‘We think we know a great deal about the universe, but do we?’’ Sir Patrick Moore
There are some ideas in the realm of science upon which countless careers, reputations, and even sometimes entire industries have been built. Can we be certain, therefore, that challenges to such ideas would be given a fair hearing?
The irony is, of course, that the whole point of science is to keep on asking questions, to be critical… that’s how it works!
2. Air Pollution Deaths
March 2021
This article took me to my specialist topic of air pollution, and more specifically, allowed me to address an issue that has bothered me throughout my career as an air quality scientist. That is, when asked a question along the lines of;
‘How many people *actually* die from air pollution?’
I’ve never been able to give a satisfactory answer.
It turns out that often quoted figures like ‘40,000 people in the UK die prematurely each year from the effects of air pollution’ are in fact statistical constructs. Constructs that have, through complicated layers of referencing from one correlation study to the next, lost caveats and context along the way.
So to stick with the UK example, is the answer really 40,000, or is it in fact closer to zero?
Have a read and see what you think!
3. The Climate Control Knob
April 2021
This was a piece that I had written some time before The Atlas Report was created. I’m glad I dusted it off since it has proved to be my most widely read newsletter on climate change.
It’s an article that I often refer people back to should they wish to think beyond the over-simplified idea that believe carbon dioxide is the only variable that sets our hypothetical global thermostat.
‘‘…when making up 0.03% of the atmosphere, CO2 levels are fine. But at 0.04%, we’re facing a catastrophe. What are the chances we should have existed when CO2 levels were on such a knife edge!?’’
4. Spring Weather Review
May 2021
After reading headline after headline about record heat and drought conditions around the world (while all too often staring out the window looking at precisely the opposite!) I could stand it no more and my series of seasonal weather reports was born!
I deliberately pick out weather stories from around the world that show conditions which register at the bottom end of the thermometer. There were certainly no shortage of stories presenting shattering cold and snow conditions in the Spring from which to draw upon, the first of three such seasonal reviews I published in 2021.
‘‘According to global satellite data, the world’s average temperature has fallen below the level it was at twenty years ago. Technically speaking, the world is colder today than it was when Greta was born.’’
For those worried about the worlds decent into impending fire and brimstone, one might have anticipated such a review would cool their climate anxieties somewhat, perhaps even consider it as good news?
Surprisingly (or perhaps not), some of the feedback I got was quite the opposite!
5. The Greenhouse Effect - a Fork in the Road
August 2021
This was one of the more technically challenging newsletters to write. It’s based on my own observations of how specialists working on the inner workings of the Greenhouse Effect are seemingly split into two broad camps as to how it actually works. Irrespective of the theories themselves, the split in consensus was in itself quite a surprise.
‘‘Could it be that the climate models are based on an assumption which contradicts well established laws of thermodynamics?’’
This piece certainly ruffled a few feathers, with one disgruntled reader taking to Twitter to accuse me of ‘doing a disservice to chemistry and humanity’, and ‘knowingly spreading falsehoods’!
Now Dr Poe could of course be perfectly correct in his careful rebuttal of my work, but I can’t help but be a little surprised at how so many (‘scientists’) seem to repel robust scientific inquiry - particularly those whose careers depend on there being a catastrophe always looming just around the corner.
The inner workings of the Greenhouse Theory is one of my personal favorite topics, one that I will certainly return to next year.
No doubt Dr Poe will be very pleased!
6. Is there a Greenhouse Effect on Venus?
October 2021
Perhaps the piece that I enjoyed writing the most this year, this article sets out a method of predicting the temperatures of rocky worlds in our solar system using relatively simple, tried-and-tested engineering principles.
Crucially, this theory doesn’t require any information about the amount of carbon dioxide (or any other greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere.
‘‘…as predicted by Ideal Gas Law, the Venusian surface temperature is determined by the weight of its atmosphere combined with it’s distance from the sun.’’
I walk through this basic idea in what I hope is an accessible way to all of you budding as well as professional environmental scientists out there.
Moreover, I reference the work of a couple of maverick climate scientists who have published a paper in which they build a model based on these simple principles… one which seems to perform exceptionally well, I might add.
Roundup
I’ve tried to stay true to the very reason why i started The Atlas Report in the pieces I have published.
I believe in skepticism, common sense, and not being afraid to take a position and stand by it until reasoned argument, and not emotion or political correctness, tells you otherwise.
This is as important within the environmental science community as anywhere else, representatives of which make up the largest share of my readers. Environmental issues can be very emotive and are therefore all too easily hijacked by people for financial and political gain.
Do not outsource all of your thinking to others, and don’t let others tell you that you need to be an ‘expert’, with a stream published papers and academic credentials behind you in order to understand and question some of these big ideas.
You don’t.
‘‘In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual’’ Galileo Galilae
I look forward to producing more no-nonsense science and environment-related articles in 2022 that will allow you to think a little more deeply about some of our biggest ideas.
Please keep reading, sharing and subscribing…
…wishing you all a prosperous 2022!
-Tristan